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11/21/2011 - Homestead, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Stewart has won a lot of championships during his illustrious racing career, but winning his third Sprint Cup Series title in 2011 was unlike any other one that he has experienced.
It's celebration time for Stewart and his No.14 team...and a well deserved one for them after battling back from adversity earlier in the season. But what's forthcoming for the team is ambiguous, particularly with crew chief Darian Grubb.
What a race for Stewart on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and what a way to conclude his championship season.
Starting 15th and trailing leader Carl Edwards by just three points when the green flag waved for the 400-mile season-finale at Homestead, Stewart overcame numerous obstacles, especially in the early going when he ran over debris that damaged his front grille. He had to make two lengthy pit stops under caution for repairs and fell back to 40th.
But Stewart made an amazing comeback, passing a total of 118 cars throughout the race. He did a lot of his passing by going three and sometimes four wide after many restarts. Stewart last pitted with 56 laps remaining in a fuel and tire strategy. He held the third position during the eighth and final caution, but after the last restart with 37 laps to go, he quickly moved around Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch to take the lead for good.
"Man, I feel like I passed half the State of Florida; 118 cars is a lot of cars to pass in one race," Stewart said. "I don't care what series you're in or where you're at. To do it under the circumstances and the pressure that we had [Sunday], I'm very proud of that. I've been racing 31 years, and I can't even remember some of the races I've won. But I would have to say that under the circumstances, I've got to believe that this is definitely one of the greatest races of my life."
Stewart's win coupled with a second-place finish for Edwards at Homestead gave each driver a season-ending 2,403 points. In a tiebreaker, Stewart captured the title by virtue of his five wins this season -- all of them coming in the 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup -- compared to only one victory for Edwards, which came in March at Las Vegas.
When the Chase began on September 18 at Chicagoland Speedway, Stewart doubted whether or not he should have been in the playoffs after his team struggled during the summer months. Thanks to a third-place finish at Atlanta and then a seventh-place run in the season-ending race at Richmond, Stewart squeaked his way into the Chase, earning the tenth seed.
Stewart set a season-record of five Chase wins. His other victories came at Chicago, New Hampshire, Martinsville and Texas. Stewart had lost momentum in the Chase by finishing 25th at Dover and then 15th at Kansas, but he recovered nicely from there.
"When I said at Chicago that we didn't belong in this Chase and taking a space that somebody else that was doing a better job could have done, there were two things that could have happened with our group of guys," Stewart said. "They could have hung their heads and said that our guy doesn't believe in us, or they could do it, which is exactly what they did, and that's never give up, and they dug their heels in. They fought like the Bad News Bears.
"We were the team that nobody really thought had a shot at the beginning, and the longer this went, we battled adversity at Dover and Texas. and we just kept fighting."
Stewart's two other Sprint Cup championships came in 2002 and '05. He became the ninth different driver in 63-year history of NASCAR's premier series to win three or more titles. Stewart also became the first driver and owner to win the series championship since Alan Kulwicki did it in 1992.
Before he competed in NASCAR full-time, Stewart won the 1997 IndyCar championship. He also has several USAC titles to his credit.
When rain fell on the 1.5-mile South Florida track during his post-race championship celebration, Stewart received a surprise phone call from racing legend A.J. Foyt. Stewart's Chevrolet has the number 14 in honor of his childhood hero Foyt.
"To hear him say that was the best race he's ever seen me run, brings a tear to your eye," Stewart said. "Not many people can have their lifelong hero say that and hear you say that."
While Stewart will be honored as the Sprint Cup champion on December 2 in Las Vegas, Grubb's future with Stewart-Haas Racing is in doubt. Grubb was informed midway through the Chase that he would not be back with the team next season.
"I'm not sure what's going to happen," said Grubb, who became a first-time championship-winning crew chief in the series. "But I was told early in the Chase before Charlotte that next year I was not going to be here. We just kept fighting and doing everything we had to do every week. It did not change anything, what the outcome was going to be. We fought as if we were going to fight to win this championship and we did it, and now we'll just see in this coming week how things change."
Grubb worked for Hendrick Motorsports from 2001-08 prior to his arrival at Stewart's team. He has guided Stewart to 11 wins in the first three years of SHR's existence. Grubb is now exploring his options.
"I had a lot of conversations with a lot of people, telling them please give me the courtesy of waiting until [Sunday night] to see what we could accomplish," he said. "Now that we have done that, I guess we'll start talking, but we'll do a little celebrating first."
In June, Stewart made a key personnel change in his racing organization with competition director Bobby Hutchens being released from the team. Matt Borland took over the role in the interim.
So what's in store for the team in the near future?
"There's a lot of things in the off-season and decisions that have to be made," Stewart said. "Obviously, we wanted to get through this championship battle first, and we'll sit down as a group this week and figure out the direction of our program."
What ends up happening at Stewart's team will be interesting to follow during the off-season.
For the meantime, they're just enjoying the party.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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